November 4, 2020

What follows the current COVID measures?

Are the current COVID measures slowing down the pandemic in Germany? A collaboration of researchers from FIAS and the Jülich Supercomputing Centre (JSC) used mathematical models to calculate possible scenarios for the further course of the pandemic

In light of the rapid increase in reported COVID-19 cases in Germany, a 4-week "Lockdown Light” (starting on November 2) was announced on October 28, 2020. Mathematical models, which were developed at FIAS and JSC during the first COVID-19 wave, can be used to numerically simulate possible scenarios for the further course of the pandemic. The results obtained so far indicate that, regardless of the effectiveness of the current restrictive measures, these are most likely not sufficient to contain the outbreak permanently if they are fully lifted from December onwards. Successful strategies could include the repetition of periods of more stringent measures or the continued application of measures over the winter.

Further Information (in German): 

Präsentation "COVID Maßnahmen - und dann?"

The CoSiMo (COVID-19 Simulation and Modeling) Team at FIAS and JSC:

Maria Barbarossa (FIAS), Jan Fuhrmann (JSC) Jan Meinke (JSC), Stefan Krieg (JSC),Thomas Lippert (FIAS & JSC)

Covid-Measures November 2020
Possible development of daily case numbers (7-day average) for a shutdown now and Christmas